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Quantum computing (QC) brings with it a mixture of ground prospects and important risks. Like big tech players IbmFor, for, for,. GoogleFor, for, for,. Microsoft And Amazon Has already developed commercial QC cloud services, while special firms like container and cescantum have increased the status of a unicorn. Experts predict that the global QC market may increase trip 1 trillion In the world economy between 2025 and 2035. However, can we say with certainty that the benefits are more than the risks?
On the one hand, these modern systems promise to revolutionize areas such as drug discovery, climate modeling, AI and perhaps even artificial general intelligence (AGI) development. On the other hand, they also introduce the serious challenges of cybersecurity that should now be focused on, though the fully active quantum computers worthy of breaking today’s encryption standards are still for many years.
Understand the landscape of QC danger
The basic cybersecurity of the QC has the ability to break the encryption algorithm, which is considered as an ugly. A Survey KPMG has revealed that US companies and 60 % of Canada’s 60 % of Canada’s companies estimates that quantum computers will join the mainstream by 2030. What is more worrying is that 73 % of US respondents and 60 % of Canadian respondents believe that this is a matter of time before starting the use of cybercriminals to damage current security measures.
Modern encryption methods relies heavily on mathematics issues that are practically unresolved by classical computers, at least within the most appropriate time. For example, putting large prime numbers in RSA encryption will take such a computer to all f. 300 trillion years. However, noise algorithms (quantum computers developed in 1994 have been developed to help rapidly), quite a powerful quantum computer could potentially solve it. Faster.
The algorithm of Gore, which is designed for non -structural search, when it comes to symmetrical encryption methods, is a real game changer, as it effectively cuts their security strength into half. For example, the AES-128 encryption will offer the same level of security just like 64 bit systems, which will keep it open for quantum attacks. This situation has demanded more strong encryption standards, such as AES-256, which can prove to be against potential quantum risks. In the near future.
Now the harvest, the post -declaring
The most important thing is “Cut down now, Decide later” Û” This poses a significant risk of data, which has long -term price, such as health records, financial details, official documents and military intelligence.
Given the potential consequences of HDL attacks, A lot of organizations The responsible for important systems around the world should adopt “cryptocurrency”. This means that whenever new weaknesses are exposed, they should be ready to quickly change cryptographic algorithms and implementation. This concern is also reflected in US national security Memory Reduce the risk of weakening secretariat systems when promoting US leadership in quantum computingWhich especially indicates this risk and calls for active steps to counter it.
Risk timeline
When it comes to predicting a timeline of quantum risks, the expert’s opinion is on the whole map. A Recent reports The meter suggests that we will not see enough quantum computer to break the encryption of RSA-2048 from 2055 to 2060, which is based on current trends in quantum volume-a metric is used to compare the quality of various quantum computers.
At the same time, some experts are more hopeful. They believe that things can be accelerated by recent developments in quantum error correction and algorithm design, potentially allowing quantum declaring capabilities in the early 2035. For example, researchers released Jim Cyola and Jess Radil A report At the end of 2020, 90 % of confidence expressed that RSA-2048 can be proven before 2060.
Although the exact timeline is still in the air, one thing is clear: Experts agree that organizations need to start preparations from now on, it does not matter when the quantum risk will really come.
Quantum Machine Learning – Final Black Box?
In addition to today’s organizations, security researchers and the future objectionable crypto curse Are also disturbing Apparently the inevitable future of AI and QS merging. Quantum technology has the potential to spoil the development of AI as it can handle a complex calculation at the speed of electricity. This can play an important role in reaching the Agi, as today’s AI system needs more and more sharp parameters, which have some serious computational obstacles. However, this harmony also opens the scenarios that can be beyond our ability to predict.
You do not need AGI to understand the essence of the problem. Imagine if quantum computing was to merge into machine learning (ML). We can see what experts say to the Black Box. The deep nerve network (DNNS) is already known for being quite vague, which has hidden layers, whose creators also struggle to interpret. Although the classic nervous network decisions are already there, tools tools tools, quantum ML, will lead to a more confused situation.
The root of this problem is in the nature of the QC, that is, the fact that it uses a super -position, confusion and intervention in implementing information, which does not equate any classic equivalent. When these quantum properties are applied to ML algorithm, the models that emerge may include actions that are difficult to translate in which humans can be caught. This raises some clear concerns for important sectors such as health care, finance and autonomous systems, where it is very important to understand AI’s decisions for safety and compliance.
Will the post quantum cryptography be sufficient?
To tackle the growing threats posed by the QC, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) launched it The standard of secrets after quantum Project in 2016. This included a thorough review of 69 candidates from the world’s Cryptographers. Upon completion of the review, Nest chose several promising methods that rely on the lattex and hash functions. These are the challenges of mathematics that are capable of countering the attacks of both classical and quantum computers.
In 2024, NIST developed the post quantum detailed Cryptographic standardsAnd big tech companies have been taking steps to implement preliminary reservations since then. For example, Apple unveiled PQ3-a post quantum protocol. On a similar note, Google has been experimenting with the post quantum algorithm in Chrome since 2016 and permanently integrating them into its various services.
Meanwhile, Microsoft is advancing to increase the corrupted error correction without disturbing the environment, and marks a major jump in QC reliability. For example, earlier this year, the company announced that it had created a “The new state of material” Û”
The challenges of the main transfer
Nevertheless, the change in post -quantum cryptography comes with many challenges that should be dealt with by the head.
- Implementation Time Frame: US officials are predicting that it can take anywhere 10 to 15 years To start new cryptographic standards in all systems. It is especially difficult for hardware located in difficult places like satellite, vehicles and ATMs.
- Performance Effects: Post -Content Enforcement Commonly Makes Demand Large key size And more complex math activities, which can reduce both encryption and decreases.
- A Lack of technical skills. To successfully connect quantum -resistant confidentialism into existing systems, organizations need highly skilled IT professionals who are well -affiliated with both classical and quantum concepts.
- Discovery of weakness: Even the most promising can be hidden in the post -algorithm, As we have seen With NIST selected crystal-Cabber algorithm.
- Supply chain concerns: The essential quantum ingredients, such as crackers and special lasers, can be affected by geographical political tension and disrupting supply.
Last but certainly at least, the quantum period will be very important to be lover. Since companies run to adopt post -quantum cryptography, it is important to remember that only encryption will not save employees from employees who click on harmful links, open suspicious email attachments or misuse access to their data.
A recent example of this is when Microsoft has seen two applications that have unintentionally revealed their private encryption keys – while the basic mathematics was solid, human error made this protection ineffective. Enforcement errors often compromise on systems that are theoretically safe.
Quantum Future Preparation
Organizations need to take some important steps to develop the challenges arising from quantum security risks. This is what they should do, in very broad words:
- Conduct a cryptographic inventory – store all the systems that use encryption and may be at risk of quantum attacks.
- Assess the life cost of the data-know which pieces of information need long-term protection, and prefer to upgrade these systems.
- Prepare a migration timeline-set the realistic schedules to get into post quantum cryptography in all system.
- Allocate appropriate resources-Ensure the budget for important costs incurred with the implementation of Quantum Resistant Security measures.
- Improve monitoring capabilities – Keep the system to find potential HNDL attacks.
Michelle Moska came with one Theorem Helping organizations to plan for quantum security :: If X (time data needs to be safe) Plus Wii (upgrade the cryptographic system that takes time) is higher than Z (unless quantum computer can break current encryption), immediately) organizations. It has to take action.
Conclusion
We are stepping into a period of quantum computing that brings with us some serious challenges of cybercare, and we all need to work faster, even if we are not fully sure when these challenges will be fully performed. We may see quantum computers that can break the current encryption, but the risk of being inactive is high.
Vivek Wadhwa of Foreign policy Magazine Puts it in a two -sized manner: “Failure to restrain the world’s AI – or instead, raw technologies should be unveiled – a deep warning. There is even more powerful emerging technology that has the potential to spread destruction, especially if it is mixed with quantum computing.”
In order to move beyond this technical wave, organizations should start implementing post -quantum cryptography, adversal quantum programs should be monitored and the quantum supply chain should be preserved. It is very important to prepare right now – before quantum computers suddenly completely obstruct our existing security measures.
Julius Aarniakas is CEO Oxelibus.
